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(But I gotta say that it bugs me to read that one super long thing Alexa quoted and see this repeated claim that Bellamy poisoned Octavia to save Clarke. I've seen that idea a lot in the last few weeks and I think it's off. Yes, saving Clarke was certainly part of why he did it, but he's still primarily doing it all to stop the whole war. Their plan to murder Kara didn't work and Octavia was still about to release the worms on the valley, so he took the next most desperate measure he could short of killing Octavia. It's not all about Clarke.)
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Yeah, I agree. I really think Bellamy is seeing the bigger picture this season (while Clarke is not).
Re: Niylah - she had already been shown earlier this season to be entirely Team Blodreina. She was willing to kill Madi when she realized Madi was a true Nightblood, so that there would be no chance Madi could challenge Octavia's rule. So it makes sense that she was still trying to keep Madi from taking the Flame, she just happened to be on the same side as Clarke this time. The "true believers have all the guns" was in reference to the ones gathering for the Ascension, in other words they were the ones wanting Madi to become Commander.