Air

Hey everyone. I'm pretty obsessed with awards season as you might have noticed already. But every year I try to predict the nominees as well as the winners once the nominations are announced. The nominations seem pretty far off currently and I thought maybe we could share our own predictions, and perhaps start a prediction pool for the nominations and then later on, for the winners?

I just put together a precursor statistics list to try and guess what the nominees might be, without any surprises or dark horses. I'll probably post that on my livejournal and link it here since it's pretty long. EDIT: HERE is the organized tally list of precursors so far for the top eight categories! I'll update as more wins/nominations come in as well.

But for now, does anyone have any predictions, or a first draft of predix for any categories so far?

Air

Ok to get the ball rolling (sorry for the double post), here are my current predictions in the top 8 categories!

January 13th Predictions:
A * indicates a new prediction

PICTURE

The Hurt Locker
Up in the Air
Inglorious Basterds
Precious
Avatar
An Education
Up
Invictus
District 9
Star Trek* (previously (500) Days of Summer)


DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
Jason Reitman – Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino – Inglorious Basterds
James Cameron – Avatar
Lee Daniels – Precious


ACTOR

George Clooney – Up in the Air
Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
Colin Firth – A Single Man
Morgan Freeman – Invictus
Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker


ACTRESS

Carey Mulligan – An Education
Meryl Streep – Julie and Julia
Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side
Helen Mirren – The Last Station


SUPPORTING ACTOR

Cristoph Waltz – Inglorious Basterds
Woody Harrelson – The Messenger
Matt Damon – Invictus
Stanely Tucci – The lovely Bones
Christopher Plummer – The Last Station


SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Mo’Nique – Precious
Anna Kendrick – Up in the Air
Vera Farmiga – Up in the Air
Marion Cotillard – Nine
Julianne Moore – A Single Man


ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Inglorious Basterds
The Hurt Locker
(500) Days of Summer
A Serious Man
Up


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Up in the Air
District 9
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Precious
An Education

jackiehydelover

I just want to throw this out there...I want to make out with you for putting Jeremy Renner on your list

I'll have to think about this some more

Air

I haven't seen The Hurt Locker yet! (UGH i know) but I really do think he'll sneak in there.

jackiehydelover

The Hurt Locker was amazing!!! It comes out on DVD next week I think so you'll have your chance to see it. Jeremy Renner blew me away, but he always blows me away. I've been a fan of his since 2002! I love that man!

And...

scone of joy

I just wanted to say, I think your list may be dead on. Someone has done their homework. Not so sure about 500 Days of Summer in the best picture category, but with ten slots this year, it's hard to say.

Air

Just saw The Hurt Locker and Avatar! Making my way down the contender list for awards season and both were great! (p.s. can't believe Kathryn Bigelow and James Cameron used to be married. Crazy fun fact!)

And scone of joy - thanks so much! I threw a few wildcards in there at the moment, like 500 Days because there is still some time to play around. I may be modifying a few as the date gets closer. I'm not so sure a bout Stanley Tucci anymore. As for Best Picture, I'm unconvinced A Serious Man will make it in there. I've heard NOTHING about it from anywhere else than the awards blogs, so hmmmmm.

EDIT: I think I'm going to swap out (500) Days of Summer for Star Trek.

lynaem

Best Motion Picture of the Year
Nominees:

Avatar (2009)

The Blind Side (2009)

District 9 (2009)

An Education (2009)

The Hurt Locker (2008)

Inglourious Basterds (2009)

Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)

A Serious Man (2009)

Up (2009)

Up in the Air (2009/I)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role
Nominees:

Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart (2009)

George Clooney for Up in the Air (2009/I)

Colin Firth for A Single Man (2009)

Morgan Freeman for Invictus (2009)

Jeremy Renner for The Hurt Locker (2008)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role
Nominees:

Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side (2009)

Helen Mirren for The Last Station (2009)

Carey Mulligan for An Education (2009)

Gabourey Sidibe for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)

Meryl Streep for Julie & Julia (2009)

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role
Nominees:

Matt Damon for Invictus (2009)

Woody Harrelson for The Messenger (2009/I)

Christopher Plummer for The Last Station (2009)

Stanley Tucci for The Lovely Bones (2009)

Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds (2009)

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role
Nominees:

Penélope Cruz for Nine (2009)

Vera Farmiga for Up in the Air (2009/I)

Maggie Gyllenhaal for Crazy Heart (2009)

Anna Kendrick for Up in the Air (2009/I)

Mo'Nique for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)

Best Achievement in Directing
Nominees:

Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker (2008)

James Cameron for Avatar (2009)

Lee Daniels for Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009)

Jason Reitman for Up in the Air (2009/I)

Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds (2009)

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Nominees:

The Hurt Locker (2008): Mark Boal

Inglourious Basterds (2009): Quentin Tarantino

The Messenger (2009/I): Oren Moverman, Alessandro Camon

A Serious Man (2009): Joel Coen, Ethan Coen

Up (2009): Bob Peterson, Pete Docter

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Nominees:

District 9 (2009): Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell

An Education (2009): Nick Hornby

In the Loop (2009): Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci, Tony Roche

Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009): Geoffrey Fletcher

Up in the Air (2009/I): Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner

Best Achievement in Cinematography
Nominees:

Avatar (2009): Mauro Fiore

Das weisse Band - Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte (2009): Christian Berger

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince (2009): Bruno Delbonnel

The Hurt Locker (2008): Barry Ackroyd

Inglourious Basterds (2009): Robert Richardson

Best Achievement in Editing
Nominees:

Avatar (2009): Stephen E. Rivkin, John Refoua, James Cameron

District 9 (2009): Julian Clarke

The Hurt Locker (2008): Bob Murawski, Chris Innis

Inglourious Basterds (2009): Sally Menke

Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire (2009): Joe Klotz

Best Achievement in Art Direction
Nominees:

Avatar (2009): Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg

The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (2009): Anastasia Masaro

Nine (2009): John Myhre

Sherlock Holmes (2009): Sarah Greenwood

The Young Victoria (2009): Patrice Vermette

Best Achievement in Costume Design
Nominees:

Bright Star (2009): Janet Patterson

Coco avant Chanel (2009): Catherine Leterrier

The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (2009): Monique Prudhomme

Nine (2009): Colleen Atwood

The Young Victoria (2009): Sandy Powell

Best Achievement in Makeup
Nominees:

Il divo (2008)

Star Trek (2009)

The Young Victoria (2009)

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Score
Nominees:

Avatar (2009): James Horner

Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009): Alexandre Desplat

The Hurt Locker (2008): Marco Beltrami, Buck Sanders

Sherlock Holmes (2009): Hans Zimmer

Up (2009): Michael Giacchino

Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song
Nominees:

Crazy Heart (2009): T-Bone Burnett, Ryan Bingham("The Weary Kind")

Faubourg 36 (2008): Reinhardt Wagner, Frank Thomas("Loin de Paname")

Nine (2009): Maury Yeston("Take It All")

The Princess and the Frog (2009): Randy Newman("Down in New Orleans")

The Princess and the Frog (2009): Randy Newman("Almost There")

Best Achievement in Sound
Nominees:

Avatar (2009)

The Hurt Locker (2008)

Star Trek (2009)

Up (2009)

Inglourious Basterds (2009)

Best Achievement in Sound Editing
Nominees:

Avatar (2009)

The Hurt Locker (2008)

Inglourious Basterds (2009)

Star Trek (2009)

Up (2009)

Best Achievement in Visual Effects
Nominees:

Avatar (2009)

District 9 (2009)

Star Trek (2009)

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year
Nominees:

Coraline (2009)

Fantastic Mr. Fox (2009)

The Princess and the Frog (2009)

The Secret of Kells (2009)

Up (2009)

Best Foreign Language Film of the Year
Nominees:

Ajami (2009): Scandar Copti, Yaron Shani(Israel)

Das weisse Band - Eine deutsche Kindergeschichte (2009): Michael Haneke(Germany)

El secreto de sus ojos (2009): Juan José Campanella(Argentina)

Un prophète (2009): Jacques Audiard(France)

La teta asustada (2009): Claudia Llosa(Peru)

Best Documentary, Features
Nominees:

Burma VJ: Reporter i et lukket land (2008): Anders Østergaard

The Cove (2009): Louie Psihoyos

Food, Inc. (2008): Robert Kenner

The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers (2009): Judith Ehrlich, Rick Goldsmith

Which Way Home (2009): Rebecca Cammisa

Best Documentary, Short Subjects
Nominees:

China's Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province (2009) (TV)

The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner (2009)

The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant (2009) (TV)

Królik po berlinsku (2009)

Music by Prudence (2010)

Best Short Film, Animated
Nominees:

French Roast (2008)

Granny O'Grimm's Sleeping Beauty (2008)

La dama y la muerte (2009)

Logorama (2009)

Wallace and Gromit in 'A Matter of Loaf and Death' (2008) (TV)

Best Short Film, Live Action
Nominees:

The Door (2008)

Istället för abrakadabra (2008)

Kavi (2009)

Miracle Fish (2009)

The New Tenants (2009)