2006 Box Office Predictions
 

I don't know if there has been a thread for this but I thought it would be fun to guess what you think the top movies are going to be and if you want even guess what they will earn.

Here are some of the big movies coming in 2005:
Star Wars III (May. 19)
Batman Begins (Jun. 17)
War of the Worlds (Jun. 29)
Charlie and the Chocolate Factory (Jul. 15)
Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire (Nov. 18)
Chronicles of Narnia (Dec. 9)
King Kong (Dec. 14)

You can see a bigger list here: http://www.billsaysthis.com/content/...vies2005.phtml

My guesses:
1. Star Wars III
2. War of the Worlds
3. Chronicles of Narnia
4. Harry Potter
5. King Kong

I think War Of The Worlds, King Kong, Chronicles of Narnia and Star Wars Episode III will be the biggest films of the year. They're highly anticipated and people are just going to storm the theaters when these films are released.

It probably will, but I HATE HP and I hope it doesn't do better than Narnia.

I doubt Passion re-cut will be that big because it's in a very limited number of theatres. Kingdom of Heaven should do well, but I don't know how well. I saw the trailer and honestly, it's kind of difficult to tell WHAT the movie is about...seems kind of like a cross between LoTR/Gladiator/Troy.

Oh and those are just my guesses, feel free to post your own!

Without a doubt I think Star Wars III will be hugeeeeeeee. I think it, War of the Worlds and the new HP have a good chance of being the top 3 grossing movies.

There has been years of hype for SW3 and I think big fans and those that are mildly interested in the SW franchise will check it out.

And the new HP is probably one of the more adventurous of the series and everyone who has read it has imagined the challenges in the cup in their minds, so they'll definitely flock to the cinema's to watch it.

I think the surprise hit of the year will be Batman Begins. I think all those Batman fans who felt jipped by the last 2 movie versions will place a lot of faith in this version and due to the amount of stars in it I think that it will appeal to the general public who want to watch a good action movie.

That's my 2 cents :)

Anyone else? Come on, don't be shy. :)

I think it'll go like this:
1. Star Wars III
2. War of the Worlds
3. Harry Potter
4.Chronicles of Narnia
5. King Kong

This HP should gross alot since it's alot more action-packed than the previous ones. And this is the last Star Wars, so it'll be freakin huge.

We usually have a thread like this and ROCKSTAR starts them, so I might do a Search, but otherwise it's fine.

Just be sure that you all comment on the films instead of just listing them (which you're doing quite nicely).

:)

Well I'm going in at the Deep end and say the number 1 film (at the box-office) this year will be

King Kong

closely followed by

Episode 3


I don't think HP will do much more than $2 hundred million, but that is still a lot!The new book however will break all book-selling records ;)


War of the Worlds and Narnia will do about the same.

I don't know about King Kong. I know that Peter Jackson is doing it, and don't get me wrong, I loved LoTR, but I have no interest in seeing King Kong. It's just a story that doesn't interest me. I could be wrong though, you never know.

I really hope HP does bad. I know that's mean but I can't stand that whole franchise. Bugs the living heck out of me.

I think War of the Worlds will do well because I'm sure they'll do a lot of marketing, plus it's coming out around July 4th. It's also a pretty classic story, so it could attract people from all generations.

It's still quite early but when some Kong trailers hit the net/cinema I think people will start to get excited :)

I think HP is fun, but I much prefer the books, I'm not too keen on the films, too wooden IMO.

I'll be surprised if Star Wars doesn't end up first. With it being the last movie and also the fact that Anakin becomes Darth Vader...

I think the HP movie will probably do better than Prisoner of Azkaban, because it's being released in the fall, and the new book will have come out over the summer. I don't expect it to be 2nd or 3rd though.

I think Star Wars will be 1st, but I'm not sure on any of the others.

I have no interest in King Kong. I love Peter Jackson as a director, but the movie just isn't something I'm interested in.

1.) Star Wars: I myself am not really interested in seeing it but I have friends that are dieng for this to come out and I know there are a ton of others just like them.

2.) Harry Potter: Not a fan of the books or the movies but, like SW, it's got a rabid fanbase and they'll go out for it.

3.) Batman Begins: Love Christian Bale, Love Batman, hate Katie Holms but I can deal with her. I hope this does well.

War of the World's seems like it'll be entertaining and I actually want to see this so it's at #4.

I've never heard of the other movies so I'll wait to comment on them until I see a trailer or something.

In no particular order I think the big hits will be Star Wars Episode III, Batman Begins, King Kong, War Of The Worlds and Harry Potter.

This is almost a loaded question because of a lot of things:

1) Theatrical release dates.

They are all targeting specific times of year and demographics.

For example, HP always... With the execption of PoA... Comes out in December for all the younger kids on Winter Break. I think this is partly what kept HP from earning slightly less this time out since it came out around the same time as all the other Summer Blockbusters and just became another SB itself.

2) Genre.

Almost all of the ones listed (here and on the linked list) are mostly action movies and are expected to be big "event" films.

However, there are a few comedies and dramas that don't have to be multimillion dollar box office sales to be considered hits.

This is relevant to the question asked because just because a movie rakes in 300 billion dollars (for example), doesn't mean it is a "hit" among fans and or critics, I.E. Star Wars Episode I back in 1999, as a prime example.

Conversely, something smaller like Barber Shop that spawned a soon-to-be released spin-off, Beauty Shop, that is specifically targeted to a smaller audience, African Americans and just comedy fans in general, can be considered a hit with a little under 60 million considering films like these don't cost over 10 million to make.... Just as the remake of "The Hooney Mooners" with Cedric The Entertainer is also slated to be released at the latter end of the Summer.

3) Home Video/DVD Sales and Foreign Release

This is a significant factor that IS factored into box office reciepts (and is broken down accordingly).

It is relevant to the question asked because something like Episode III will most likey be out on DVD before Christmas (or shortly after in Jan/Feb) as will some of those other films like Batman Begins just to catch the Holiday shopping crowd.

So...

With that said...

My predictions are:

A) Star Wars: Episode III: Revenge of the Sith -- This has so much momentum going into it as far as expectations and marketing that even if the film sucks... People will go just to SEE how bad it sucks given that Episode I and II weren't that great, regardless if viewers are die-hard SW fans or just curious viewers. It is not a nobel distinction to have, but nobility isn't a factor when computing the bottom line.

Also, it has the competitive advantage of going FIRST as far as the SB go.

It is now doubt a strategic move by 20th Century Fox and one that other studios are no doubt actually greatful for, and also, hope the movie continues the tradition of the first two by being bad, so by the time their films come out, people WILL be sick of the hype and want so-called "real" entertainment.

B) Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy -- This has another rabid fan base and following like HP and it will probably due well for a few weeks than peter off.. BUT make it up and possibly surpass all others (to be number two) via DVD and Foreign markets. This is why I brought those two things into the conversation earlier.

C) Harry Potter -- Because it is a family friendly film, it's Winter Break, and the book is more anticipated than PoA. These two factors alone will propel it to at least third place.

D) War of the Worlds -- Steven Spielberg and Tom Cruise. Their names alone will garner interest as well as curiosity from sci-fans of the story to see how well this latest version translates to a world where unbelieveable things like 9/11 are common place.

Those still basking in the nostalgia of "Independence Day" will also flock to this for escapist entertainment, but I don't see this toppling RoTS if they go head-to-head as far as sci-fi stories go. I could be wrong, though...

E) Batman Begins -- It will do well, but not huge. Why? Because just like SW fans, the last two movies left a foul taste in their mouths and many will be reluctant to go until they hear how well or bad the film is. Expect a slow, steady run, but nothing over the opening weekend numbers (depending on what it is going up against).

Also, this is a "niche" film no matter what fans will say. It is still primarily for the comic book and graphic novel fans.. Especially, this version of it... And may not appeal to more mainstream fans who liked X-Men and Spider Man.

That's all I can think of, at any rate.