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Old 09-30-2004, 08:34 PM
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Experts Predict Mount St. Helens Eruption

wasn't alive yet for the 1980 eruption, which I've learned about it watching things on the eruption, but is a memorable disaster in washington state... Kind of interesting that the mountain has come back to life once again.... The only big things Northwest people have distaster rise, are earthquakes, and volcanoes...

Just as long as Mount Rainer which I live closer to, doesn't blow anytime soon I'll be fine...

So who know's what might happen's in the next few days, sounds like will not be as big as the 1980 blast....


Experts Predict Mount St. Helens Eruption

4 hours ago

By GENE JOHNSON, Associated Press Writer

SEATTLE - The flurry of earthquakes at Mount St. Helens intensified further Thursday, and one scientist put the chance of a small eruption happening in the next few days at 70 percent.

Jeff Wynn, chief scientist at the U.S. Geologic Survey's Cascade Volcano Observatory in Vancouver, Wash., said tiny quakes were happening three or four times a minute. Larger quakes, with magnitudes of 3 to 3.3, were happening every three or four minutes, he said.

New measurements show the 975-foot lava dome in the volcano's crater has moved 2 1/2 inches to the north since Monday, Wynn said.

"Imagine taking a 1,000-foot-high pile of rocks and moving it 2 1/2 inches. For a geologist, that's a lot of energy," Wynn said.

Wynn estimated there was a 70 percent chance the activity will result in an eruption.

Scientists did not expect anything like the mountain's devastating eruption in 1980, which killed 57 people and coated towns 250 miles away with ash. On Wednesday, they warned that a small or moderate blast from the southwest Washington mountain could spew ash and rock as far as three miles from the 8,364-foot peak.

Scientists planned to fly over the volcano again Thursday to test for gasses that could indicate the presence of magma moving beneath the volcano.

Few people live near the mountain, which is in a national forest about 100 miles south of Seattle. The closest structure is the Johnston Ridge Observatory, about five miles from the crater.

The heightened alert has drawn a throng of sightseers to observation areas. Dawn Smith, co-owner of Eco Park Resort west of the mountain, told The News Tribune of Tacoma, "It's just been crazy the past couple of days."

A sign in front of her business reads, "Here we go again."

The Geological Survey raised the mountain's eruption advisory from Level 2 to Level 3 out of a possible 4 on Wednesday, prompting officials to begin notifying various state and federal agencies of a possible eruption. The USGS also has asked the National Weather Service to be ready to track an ash plume with its radar.

In addition, scientists called off a plan to have two researchers study water rushing from the crater's north face for signs of magma. A plane was still able to fly over the crater Wednesday to collect gas samples. Negligible amounts of volcanic gas were found.

"An aircraft can move ... out of the way fast," Wynn said. "We don't want anyone in there on foot."

The USGS has been monitoring St. Helens closely since Sept. 23, when swarms of tiny earthquakes were first recorded. On Sunday, scientists issued a notice of volcanic unrest, closing the crater and upper flanks of the volcano to hikers and climbers.

Scientists said they believe the seismic activity is being caused by pressure from a reservoir of molten rock a little more than a mile below the crater. That magma apparently rose from a depth of about six miles in 1998, but never reached the surface, Wynn said.

The mountain's eruption on May 18, 1980, blasted away its top 1,300 feet, spawned mudflows that choked the Columbia River shipping channel, leveled hundreds of square miles of forest and paralyzed towns and cities more than 250 miles to the east with volcanic ash.

___

On the Net:

U.S. Geological Survey regional site: http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/Cascades/Curr

Pacific Northwest Seismic Network: http://www.pnsn.org/HELENS/welcome.html

Eco Park: http://www.ecoparkresort.com/


link to article http://www.comcast.net/News/DOMESTIC...02fbe20b5.html

Last edited by capesidefan; 09-30-2004 at 09:33 PM
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Old 09-30-2004, 08:58 PM
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I know, i've been fallowing the story too...That is SO cool! Not for the people if effects but scientifically speaking, I've fascinated by volcanos since i was a small child...
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Old 09-30-2004, 11:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by 86amanda86
I know, i've been fallowing the story too...That is SO cool! Not for the people if effects but scientifically speaking, I've fascinated by volcanos since i was a small child...
the yellowstone lava flow lakes is the volcano that is really scary
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Old 09-30-2004, 11:51 PM
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more fascinating than scary to me, but i guess the scary part is what makes them to amazing...
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Old 10-01-2004, 01:49 PM
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I hope it doesn't spew ash like it did in 1980. I wasn't around for that (born in 82), but the ash flew right across Canada! I have asthma and I don't want to stay inside because of it.
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Old 10-01-2004, 06:35 PM
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I got to school a little bit west of the Portland/Vancouver area and the big hoolah going on now is that apparently it has erupted..just a wee bit. some ash or something. no one has said if it's anything too bad.
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Old 10-01-2004, 06:38 PM
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they said there's might be some more eruption later on, might not be over yet, but who knows....

from komotv.com

St. Helens Releases Steam Plume

Mount St. Helens released a thick plume of white steam Friday, more than a week after a flurry of earthquakes first warned an eruption was on the way.

"This is exactly the kind of event we've been predicting," said U.S. Geological Survey scientist Cynthia Gardner.

U.S. Geological Survey spokeswoman Stephanie Hanna added: "We do not believe this is a great danger."

The National Weather Service says the small ash plume from Mount Saint Helens is drifting to the south-southwest toward Vancouver, Portland and Beaverton. But John Major, at USGS says it's a small eruption and much of the ash will probably NOT make it to the area.. Meteorologist Johnny Burg in Seattle says the FAA has been notified, but the cloud does not appear to be a threat to airplanes.

Steam frequently rises from a lava dome in the crater of the volcano, which erupted with devastating force and killed 57 people on May 18, 1980, but it had not erupted in 18 years.

The steam cloud poured from the southern edge of a 1,000-foot-tall lava dome in the volcano's crater, where a large section of glacier had fractured and risen since Thursday afternoon.
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Old 10-02-2004, 03:02 AM
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sounds like there might be more to come, the earthquakes started back up after a few hours after the eruption....
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Old 10-02-2004, 07:03 PM
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Mt St Helens is now on a Leven 3 alert: Eruption, sounds like there might be some fresh magma involved, so there might be a bigger eruption...


from komotv.com
KOMO NEWS ALERT: Government seismologists raised the alert level for Mount St. Helens on Saturday after its second steam eruption in two days, saying the next blast could threaten life and property in the remote area near the volcano.
The hundreds of visitors at the Johnston Ridge Observatory just five miles from Mount St. Helens were asked to leave. They went quickly to their cars and drove from the scene.

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Old 10-02-2004, 09:16 PM
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http://www.comcast.net/News/DOMESTIC...08f99db0e.html

U.S. Warns of Big Mount St. Helens Blast

24 minutes ago

By PEGGY ANDERSEN, Associated Press Writer

SEATTLE - Government scientists raised the alert level Saturday for Mount St. Helens after its second steam eruption in two days was followed by a powerful tremor. They said the next blast was imminent or in progress, and could threaten life and property in the remote area near the volcano.

Hundreds of visitors at the building closest to the volcano _ Johnston Ridge Observatory five miles away _ were asked to leave. They went quickly to their cars and drove away, with some relocating several miles north to Coldwater Ridge Visitors Center.

The volcano alert of Mount St. Helens was raised to Level 3, which "indicates we feel an eruption is imminent, or is in progress," said U.S. Geological Survey geologist Tom Pierson from the observatory.

The growing consensus among scientists is that new magma is probably entering the volcano's upper levels, possibly bringing with it volatile gases that could lead to eruptions, said Bill Steele at the University of Washington's seismic laboratory in Seattle.

"We're in an eruptive period where there's a potential hazard," Steele said.

Scientists said that although the risks were growing larger, they did not expect anything approaching the volcano's devastating May 18, 1980, eruption, which killed 57 people and coated much of the Northwest with ash.

They said the evacuation of the observatory was primarily a precaution in case of heavy ash discharge, which could make it difficult to drive.

"We still feel the risk is confined to this area," Pierson said.

A day after the volcano spewed a plume of steam and ash thousands of feet into the air, there was a very brief steam release Saturday _ a puff of white cloud, followed by a dust-raising landslide in the crater. A volcanic tremor signal that came next was what prompted the heightened alert level.

The signal "was far stronger after today's steam eruption" than the tremor that followed Friday's blast, Steele said. "We were picking it up throughout western Washington and into central Oregon. Yesterday we had a very weak tremor signal."

Also, earthquakes continued Saturday during the tremor.

A tremor _ a steady flow _ indicates movement of gases or fluid within the volcano," Steele said, while individual earthquakes indicate "a pounding and breaking of rock."

More steam explosions are likely, and possibly an extrusion of lava.

"This is the most intense seismic activity we've seen since the May 18th eruption," said geologist Dan Dzurisin at the U.S. Geological Survey's Cascades Volcanic Observatory in Vancouver, Wash., about 50 miles south.

The 1980 blast obliterated the top 1,300 feet of the volcano, devastated miles of forestland and buried the North Fork of the Toutle River in debris and ash as much as 600 feet deep.

The intensity "probably just reflects the fact that more rock needs to be broken for magma to reach the surface," Dzurisin said. The 1980 eruption reamed open the route to the surface, and for six years smaller eruptions piled lava into a dome that is now 1,000 feet tall and marks the main conduit for magma.

Friday's relatively small eruption, which generated a plume of ash and smoke 16,000 feet high, was the first since a 1986 dome-building event at the volcano.

Scientists believe the flurry of shallow earthquakes that began Sept. 23 may reflect movement of magma that came up the volcano's pipe during a 1998 swarm of quakes.

Air sampling has detected only tiny amounts of volcanic gases, which could mean the activity only involves the 1998 magma, which has been "degassed" over time _ or that there is fresh magma but the gases are sealed inside the system, Dzurisin said.

Few people live near the mountain, the centerpiece of the Mount St. Helens National Volcanic Monument in the Gifford Pinchot National Forest about 100 miles south of Seattle. The closest structure is the observatory, five miles away.
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Old 10-03-2004, 09:48 PM
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from komotv.com, interesting about the overnight tremor...


Update: St. Helens Eruption 'Imminent'

October 3, 2004


MOUNT ST. HELENS - As scientists warned that an eruption of Mount St. Helens appeared imminent Sunday, eager tourists camped out along park roads, hoping to catch a glimpse of the seething volcano without being overcome by ash and smoke.

A second long tremor early Sunday and an increase in volcanic gases strongly suggest magma is moving inside, researchers from the U.S. Geological Survey said. The mountain's alert was raised to Level 3, the highest possible, after a volcanic tremor was detected Saturday for the first time since before the mountain's 1980 eruption.

"I don't think anyone now thinks this will stop with steam explosions," geologist Willie Scott said Sunday at the Geological Survey's Cascades Volcano Observatory in Vancouver, Wash., about 50 miles south.

Scientists said they do not expect anything close to the devastation of the May 18, 1980 explosion, which killed 57 people and coated much of the Northwest with ash.

"Of course the volcano reserves the right to change its mind," said monument scientist Peter Frenzen with the U.S. Forest Service, which operates the park.

Some experts had said Saturday that an explosion would probably happen within 24 hours. But as the hours passed, others cautioned that the timing is difficult to predict.

"No one is predicting it as a sure thing," said Bill Steele at the University of Washington's seismology lab in Seattle. "This could be going on for weeks."

Crowds gathered at what was said to be a safe distance - about 8.5 miles from the mountain - to see what happens next. Barbecues were fired up and impromptu entrepreneurs were selling hot dogs and coffee to people camped along the side of the road in lawn chairs and pickup beds.

"It'd be neat if it spews something over and out," said Chris Sawyer, 40, of Dundee, Ore., who had a large camera set up on a tripod at the Coldwater Ridge Visitors Center.

Hundreds of people were cleared from a popular observatory closer to the peak Saturday following a tremor and brief release of steam.

"It's beyond amazing," said Steven Uhl, 31, a self-described volcano nut from Everett who traveled to the Coldwater site. "Just to be here is almost a religious experience."

The mountain was outwardly quiet at midday. Clouds of dust rose occasionally, caused by rockfall from the towering canyon walls. But earthquakes were occurring "multiple times per minute," Steele said, peaking every few minute at magnitudes as high as 3.

Scientists were unsure how explosive the eruption may be; depending on the gas content of the magma and conditions, it could range from a passive emission to an explosion that throws up a column of ash, Scott said.

Besides lava flows, ash and rock-throwing, an eruption could cause melting of the volcano's 600-foot-deep glacier and trigger debris flows to the barren pumice plain at the foot of the mountain.

The 1980 blast obliterated the top 1,300 feet of the volcano, devastated miles of forest and buried the North Fork of the Toutle River in debris and ash as much as 600 feet deep.

This time, scientists expected populated areas to get little ash if the light west-northwest wind holds. The closest community is Toutle, 30 miles west near the entrance to the park in the Gifford Pinchot National Forest about 100 miles south of Seattle.

The main concern was a significant ash plume carrying gritty pulverized rock and silica that could damage aircraft engines and the surfaces of cars and homes.

Steele said the mountain took scientists on a "rollercoaster ride" early Sunday when instruments detected the second extended volcanic vibration in two days - 25 minutes long compared to Saturday's 50-minute vibration.

"It died off and quickly became a non-issue. But had it been as long as the one following that little steam burst yesterday, we could be moving to an eruption pretty quickly," Steele said.

Scientists also detected elevated levels of carbon dioxide and other volcanic gases, including the rotten egg smell of hydrogen sulfide, that reflect changes in the volume of magma rising within the mountain.

Gas-sampling flights continued Sunday, and acoustic equipment had been placed around the crater. Dozens of Global Positioning Satellites stations - to alert scientists to changes in ground formation - have been placed on the mountain, though Friday's steam blast destroyed equipment on the 1,000-foot lava dome.

Most of the action has occurred beneath the dome, which has been building up on the crater floor and essentially serves as a plug for magma, or molten rock. The dome is filled with lava that came up during 1998 earthquakes but never surfaced. New lava may be coming up as well.

Roberta Miller, 62, said there was an "amazing energy" among those gathered at the Coldwater observatory, where the wraparound veranda was jammed with people in lawn chairs.

She said she was living in Yakima in 1980, when "the mountain came to us" in the form of heavy ashfall. This time, she said, "We came to the mountain."

For More Information:

Video of Friday's eruption at www.komotv.com/qt/st_helens_video.mov

St. Helens Info -- vulcan.wr.usgs.gov.
Live Web Camera Of Mt. St. Helens -- www.fs.fed.us
UW Real-Time Seismology Graphs Of Mt. St. Helens -- www.pnsn.org
What To Do In Case Of Ash Fall -- vulcan.wr.usgs.gov
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