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| Is Zimbabwe on the verge of a civil war?
Zimbabwe bishop ready to face guns - CNN.com Quote:
(CNN) -- A leading Zimbabwean cleric said on Thursday he was ready to face bullets in the street amid international condemnation of Robert Mugabe's regime and fears of a renewed wave of repression.
Pius Ncube, the Roman Catholic archbishop of the southern Bulawayo diocese, urged Zimbabweans to take to the streets in protest at the government's ongoing crackdown against dissenters opposed to the government, Reuters reported.
"The biggest problem with Zimbabweans is they are cowards, myself included, but as for me I am ready to stand in front, even of blazing guns," Ncube told a news conference.
"If only Zimbabweans are prepared to stand, so am I prepared to stand ... we are not going to be bullied."
Meanwhile Angola denied reports on Thursday claiming it had deployed members of a feared paramilitary police force to Zimbabwe in support of the government.
The UK's Times newspaper reported that around 2,500 Angolans, dubbed "Ninjas" because of their all-black uniform and reputation for brutality, were heading for Harare.
CNN's Jeff Koinange said Angolan state radio had denied the report.
Andrew Meldrum of the UK's Guardian newspaper told CNN that a Zimbabwean police spokesman had said there was "absolutely no truth" in the story.
But Meldrum said suggestions of Angolan involvement reflected rising discontent among Mugabe's own security forces.
"There is a growing sense of disloyalty and unrest within Zimbabwe's security forces," Meldrum told CNN.
"But Mugabe has the police, he has the army, he has the youth militia and he has the secret police so he controls the network of security that is thrown across the whole country.
Demonizing campaign
Zimbabwe's government on Thursday called for the support of other African nations in the face of what it called a "demonizing" campaign by Western governments and media agencies, Reuters reported.
"African countries must not allow themselves to be divided by imperialism," Information Minister Sikhanyiso Ndlovu told senior Army officers at a Harare military school in a speech broadcast by Zimbabwe's state television network.
"The West, and the Western news networks are demonizing Zimbabwe, giving a one-sided perspective."
On Wednesday, the president of neighboring Zambia described Zimbabwe as a "sinking Titanic" as growing numbers of refugees fled the country's economic and political turmoil. Levy Mwanawasa added that the Southern African Development Community "would soon take a stand" on Zimbabwe.
In an interview with The Associated Press, the U.S. ambassador in Harare, Christopher Dell said that a power struggle to replace Mugabe was under way within the ruling ZANU-PF party, but said the aging president would not quit without a fight.
"Mugabe is a very resourceful fellow. One has to give him certain grudging admiration for his political skills, I mean he's managed to stay in power for 27 years, that's no mean feat," Dell told AP.
"He is far from giving up. That he has made very evident," Dell added. "He's not prepared to go down without a fight, but he is weaker than he's ever been before, because the economy has simply made him weaker and because everyone recognizes that he's 83 years old."
Dell's comments, made during a scheduled trip to Johannesburg, South Africa, followed the Zimbabwe government's threat to expel Western diplomats openly siding with opposition leaders.
Zimbabwe's foreign minister summoned ambassadors from several countries, including the U.S., that have been critical of the government and "issued a threat to foreign diplomats to remain quiet or face being declared persona non grata," a U.S. State Department spokesman said.
After the minister refused to allow the diplomats to respond, Dell walked out of Monday's meeting in Harare, telling CNN he refused "to serve as a mere stage prop for the foreign minister's press conference."
Brutally beaten
Concerns over Mugabe's government were reignited on March 11 when the leaders of Zimbabwe's main opposition group, Movement for Democratic Change, said they were brutally beaten and detained by Zimbabwe forces for their role in a rally.
Video showed MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai arriving at a courthouse two days after the incident with a deep gash to his head, and walking with a cane. Tsvangirai and fellow MDC leader Arthur Mutambara said they were trying to hold a peaceful prayer meeting when they were beaten and detained.
Last weekend, several MDC leaders and officials -- some seeking medical treatment for the wounds received in the March 11 incident -- were prevented from leaving the country by Zimbabwe forces.
MDC spokesman Nelson Chamisa was attacked and beaten on Sunday near Harare International Airport, where he was scheduled to depart for a conference in Brussels, Belgium. Tsvangirai told CNN he believed Mugabe's government was behind the attack.
Zimbabwe's state-controlled Herald newspaper said Thursday that a High COurt judge had ruld that two of the officials, Sekai Holland and Grace Kwinje, would be allowed to travel abroad for medical treatement, Reuters reported.
Zimbabwe's government has repeatedly accused the opposition group of using brutal tactics. Machivenyika Mapuranga, Zimbabwe's ambassador to the U.S., accused MDC "thugs" of burning buses and police stations in Zimbabwe, and accused Western diplomats of supporting these actions.
He also blamed Western news media, including the BBC and CNN, of biased reporting against Mugabe's government.
Zimbabwe's government has repeatedly rejected CNN's request to send a reporter into the country.
Mugabe has been Zimbabwe's only ruler since it achieved independence 27 years ago. Under his rule, the once-prosperous country has suffered an economic crisis, with routine shortages of food, electricity and foreign currency. Inflation is estimated to exceed 1,700 percent.
While there is no official figure, unemployment among Zimbabweans is estimated at 80 percent.
Elections are scheduled for March 2008, and Mugabe has indicated he intends to run again.
 | Endgame in Zimbabwe | TIME Quote: Endgame in Zimbabwe
Suddenly Zimbabwe seems different. Is it just those shocking pictures of the battered face of Morgan Tsvangirai, Zimbabwe's burly opposition leader? If President Robert Mugabe deliberately allowed them to be taken to show what happens to people who oppose him, the strategy drastically backfired, emboldening opponents at home and abroad. Change is in the air — but of what kind?
Tsvangirai was beaten after being detained at a protest rally in the capital, Harare, on March 11. Condemnation came not just from the usual quarters such as Britain and the U.S. South Africa, which has long advocated a softly-softly approach to Mugabe, finally issued something akin to a reprimand, calling on all parties to respect the rule of law. (In private, the language is understood to have been more forceful.) The current chairman of the African Union, the Ghanaian President John Kufuor, called Zimbabwe "embarrassing." These rebukes are mild, but compared to past silence or support for Mugabe, they represent a substantial shift.
Such developments are helping to delegitimize Mugabe's regime within Africa, but his response suggests that he has yet to notice the new mood: his critics, he said, could "go hang." Now 83, Mugabe has become increasingly repressive since he won the election at independence in 1980. Although technically a multiparty democracy, Zimbabwe is in effect a one-party state. The opposition — political parties, trade unions, churches and civil society organizations, all of them harassed by arrests and detentions — has been fractured since its failure in flawed elections in 2005. Last September an antigovernment demonstration was called off because organizers feared not enough people would turn out. People were too busy surviving the country's virulent inflation and too intimidated by the police to take to the streets.
Yet as each day ticks by, the situation worsens. Inflation, now at 1,730%, is predicted to rise to over 4,000% by the end of the year. More than 80% of the population live below the poverty line, and mortality rates are soaring. Mugabe, as always, seeks to deflect responsibility by blaming others for the economic meltdown: Britain and the U.S. Meanwhile allies such as South Africa and Equatorial Guinea have kept Zimbabwe afloat by providing electricity and fuel on credit, while sales of mineral rights to Chinese companies have also generated income and hopes of further support. But the Chinese are not prepared to give Mugabe a free ride. They have yet to deliver the kind of aid he has requested.
Within Zimbabwe itself the tectonic plates have been shifting. Toward the end of last year the divided opposition called a truce to work together under the banner of the Save Zimbabwe Campaign. More significantly, Mugabe's own ruling zanu-PF party has begun to split as potential successors become impatient for power. After years of playing off one faction against another, there is now no credible successor whom Mugabe can trust to allow him to retire in peace. He rules now through the Joint Operation Command made up of senior army, police and intelligence officers.
This isn't how Mugabe had planned it. A resolution proposed at his party's conference last December would have harmonized the timing of parliamentary and presidential elections, allowing him to rule until 2010. Instead, his potential successors united, and the resolution was dropped from the agenda. Recently zanu-PF dissidents have been meeting the opposition parties, and have blocked their leader's attempts to call a state of emergency that would allow him to cancel all elections. That means there will be a presidential poll next year. Will Mugabe be the zanu-PF candidate? The very fact that this is a question demonstrates how rapidly his power is ebbing away.
Even so, the international community looks on at the turmoil and can do little. Sanctions such as travel bans on senior members of the party and government imposed by the European Union and the U.S. have had little effect. Mugabe has demonstrated time and again that he is prepared to destroy the country rather than give up power. South Africa, the big brother of the region, is the key to change. But President Thabo Mbeki has been afraid to touch Mugabe, who is still seen as a hero of the anti-apartheid struggle in southern Africa. Among the poor and landless in South Africa, Mugabe's seizure of white farms went down well. Afraid of lighting a fire in his own country, Mbeki sits on his hands and will take a proactive role only if Zimbabwe collapses into civil war.
Given a passive South Africa, the most the rest of the world can do is to prepare for Mugabe's departure, making it clear that there is a well-funded reconstruction plan on the table once he goes. They would do well to trumpet that plan loudly and soon. It may even help to hasten the end of his regime.
With reporting by Richard Dowden is director of the Royal African Society, which promotes cooperation between Britain and African nations.
| I don't know nearly enough about Zimbabwe, but this sounds both scary and possibly encouraging. New leadership could turn things around, I suppose. Unless, of course, it's a Mugabe crony.
That's not a region of Africa we want to see destablized again, though. Bleh. __________________  Sunny "The work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives, and the dream shall never die." avie by Jessie |
The news reports about what happened to Tsvangirai are really frightening - I hope our governments will give as much support as possible to the opposition.
