News & Politics - UPDATE: North Korea tests nuke

Lexis · 10-03-2006, 09:24 AM

Here we go again:

Quote:

North Korea said Tuesday it will conduct a nuclear test in the face of what it claimed was "the U.S. extreme threat of a nuclear war," ratcheting up tensions amid international pressure to return to negotiations on its atomic program.
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The United States warned a North Korean nuclear test "would pose an unacceptable threat to peace and stability."
South Korea raised its security level, and Japan promised a severe response if the threat was carried out.

The statement from Pyongyang gave no precise date for a test, but the prospect that North Korea could soon take a major step forward in its nuclear weapons development triggered alarm and condemnation in foreign capitals, including Russia and the
European Union. North Korea has a recent history of making provocative statements while refraining from an all-out confrontation with its chief enemy, the United States.

"The U.S. extreme threat of a nuclear war and sanctions and pressure compel the DPRK to conduct a nuclear test, an essential process for bolstering nuclear deterrent, as a self-defense measure in response," the North's Foreign Ministry said in a statement, using its official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

The Bush administration, which has denied it has any intention of attacking the communist nation, denounced the threat on Tuesday.

A nuclear test "would pose an unacceptable threat to peace and stability in Asia and the world," said State Department spokesman Sean McCormack, who was traveling with Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice in the Middle East.

"A provocative action of this nature would only further isolate the North Korean regime and deny the people of the North the benefits they so rightly deserve," McCormack said.

South Korea "has begun discussions with related countries," the country's presidential office said in a statement. Yoon Tae-young, a presidential spokesman, said the increased security level would mean "intensifying, among other things, the monitoring system to detect signs of North Korea's nuclear testing."

The U.S. ambassador to the
United Nations, John Bolton, said he was urging Security Council members to consult with their capitals on the next steps.

"I think it's important that if we embark on something here that we do it seriously and not simply issue statements for the sake of issuing statements," he told reporters before the council met for closed discussions.

Pyongyang has said it has nuclear weapons, but has not conducted any known test to prove its claim. South Korea's spy agency has said the North could test a nuclear bomb at any time.

"A nuclear test would be unforgivable for Japan and for the international community," said Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

His comments were echoed by the Japanese foreign minister, Taro Aso.

"Our response will be severe. This is more serious than the North's missile tests," Aso said.

Under a worst-case scenario, a North Korean nuclear test could prompt Japan to seek its own nuclear deterrent, raising tensions with China and South Korea, both of which suffered under Japanese colonial rule in the early 20th century.

North Korea says it will stage nuke test - Yahoo! News

**sum1** · 10-03-2006, 10:18 AM

I'm not real worried about what North Korea is going to do with their nukes. The country has an awful repressive regime but I don't think they're going to start any nuclear wars. What I'm worried about is Iran. If they get nukes I expect they might try to wipe countries off the map, like their leader talked about.

Lexis · 10-03-2006, 11:02 AM

I think Kim Jong Il is just nuts enough to do something bad. He doesn't seem to care about anything - his own people's suffering on how his neighbours feel.

AlexEvans · 10-03-2006, 11:39 AM

I think I incline more to Lexis' view on this one. Kim Jong Il isn't as crazy or genocidal as Ahmadinejad and Khameini, but he's crazy enough to make me worry.

I'm getting rather tired of China's 'concern' over Japanese 'militarism.' Japan is in an increasingly dangerous part of the world, and its increasing willingness to be a good and contributing global citizen is a good trend. It's good for Japan, it's good for the US and the West, and it's especially good news for South Korea, Taiwan, and other democratic states in Asia.

**TheAngel** · 10-03-2006, 12:06 PM

I agree, Japan needs an active military once again because they're smack dab in the middle of a lot of hostility, both East and West, US and Korea, but also Northe and South, between China, Korea, Taiwan and everyone else there that decided to be ticked off for a couple days or a couple of years. It does scare me to see Il with nukes because he's totally and completely psychotic, not a doubt in my mind about that. It's just seeing if he'll live long enough or stay in power long enough to do something about it. The man wants a legacy, what better way to do it than starting a nuclear war?

clone · 10-03-2006, 02:08 PM

Let's see some mushroom clouds.... Then deal with it.

I'm sick of this stupid game it's been going on way too long.

goodnightboy · 10-04-2006, 01:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AlexEvans (View Post)

I'm getting rather tired of China's 'concern' over Japanese 'militarism.' Japan is in an increasingly dangerous part of the world, and its increasing willingness to be a good and contributing global citizen is a good trend. It's good for Japan, it's good for the US and the West, and it's especially good news for South Korea, Taiwan, and other democratic states in Asia.

I think it's different when somewhere in your history, you've actually suffered under Japanese militarism. And they did some really disgusting things those days. They occupied my country for three years, and compared to the suffering of the Chinese etc, ours was nothing, but it is still the dark part of our history. To be very honest with you airbrushing over their militarism with inverted commas is not something that's gone down well with me, and it won't go down well to anyone whose country's history has been darkened by experience with Japanese militarism.

Having said that, however, times have changed and Japan do have honourable intentions for wanting to increase the activities of their military. China and South Korea's freezing Japan out due to ex-PM Koizumi's Yasankuni shrine visits just smacks of wanting to make Japan the scapegoat - I don't think Koizumi should've visited the shrine (I seriously hope Abe won't, although I think he will) but at the same time I think South Korea and China should either make it clear to Japan what they want her to do as contrition, or to just move on and accept that Japan has apologised enough.

And back to the topic. Kim Jong Il is certainly despotic enough to do something like that, however I don't think they will. I think it's just an empty threat in order to wrangle more economic aid (or whatever they want) to get them back to the negotiating table, or to force Washington into direct talks. They know that the repercussions are going to be serious if they do more than just talk - it might force China and South Korea, two of its biggest aid-givers, into economic sanctions like Japan and the US are currently doing. I don't think they would risk that, without the help of those two countries North Korea would just die, literally.

Iran's another one. I think they're more likely than North Korea to actually act on a N-test - it has the goal (wiping Israel off the map), and it has the support (anti-Western support in the general Middle Eastern region). Ahmadinejad; his stand isn't clear, sometimes he's a hardliner and sometimes he seems less so - it's hard to predict what he'll do, and that's what's scary.

Lexis · 10-09-2006, 12:23 AM

Quote:

North Korea said Monday it had performed its first nuclear weapons test, an underground explosion that defied international warnings but was hailed by the communist nation as a "great leap forward" for its people.
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The reported test drew harsh rebuke from North Korea's neighbors. The
U.N. Security Council was expected to discuss North Korea on Monday, and the United States and Japan were likely to press for a resolution imposing additional sanctions.

The
U.S. Geological Survey said it had recorded a magnitude-4.2 seismic event in northeastern North Korea. Australia and
South Korea also said there was seismic confirmation that pointed to a nuclear test. A top Russian military officer confirmed the device tested by North Korea was a nuclear weapon, the ITAR-Tass news agency reported.

However, Japan said it could not immediately confirm the test.

The test was equivalent to the force of 550 tons of TNT, a state-run South Korean geological institute said. That is relatively small compared to the atomic bomb the United States dropped on Hiroshima in 1945, which was equivalent to 12,500 tons of TNT.

Although North Korea has long claimed it had the capability to produce a bomb, the reported test, if confirmed, would be the first proof of its membership in a small club of nuclear-armed nations. It would dramatically alter the strategic balance of power in the Pacific region and seriously undermine global anti-proliferation efforts.

The test Monday morning came a day after the ninth anniversary of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il's appointment as head of the Korean Workers' Party. Tuesday will be the 61st anniversary of the party's founding.

Condemnation of North Korea from world powers came swiftly after the test was announced.

"A North Korean nuclear test would constitute a provocative act in defiance of the will of the international community and of our call to refrain from actions that would aggravate tensions in Northeast Asia," White House spokesman Tony Snow said.

"We expect the U.N. Security Council to take immediate actions to respond to this unprovoked act," he added. "The United States is closely monitoring the situation and reaffirms its commitment to protect and defend our allies in the region."

China, the North's closest ally, said Beijing "resolutely opposes" the test and hopes Pyongyang will return to the six-party nuclear disarmament talks.

Japan's top government spokesman said if confirmed, the North Korean test would post a serious threat to the stability in the region and a provocation.

South Korea's presidential spokesman said Seoul would "sternly respond" to the nuclear test and the Defense Ministry raised the military alert level.

The North's official Korean Central News Agency said the underground test was performed successfully and there was no dangerous radioactive leakage as a result.

This is "a stirring time when all the people of the country are making a great leap forward in the building of a great prosperous powerful socialist nation," KCNA said.

"It marks a historic event as it greatly encouraged and pleased the ... people that have wished to have powerful self-reliant defense capability," it said. "It will contribute to defending the peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula and in the area around it."

North Korea says nuclear test successful - Yahoo! News

goodnightboy · 10-10-2006, 05:28 AM

I read about it in the news

I never expected them to do anything, really. It's a shock to the system. I was reading the analyses and it doesn't seem much that Bush and co. can do. It does force their (and everybody elses') hand though.

Of course we can't rule out the possibility that they could simply have blown up something and called that a successful N-test. This could be wishful thinking on my part but I do hope so. I don't want a nuclear-armed N Korea in Asia. It's scary.

Would be interesting to see how things progress, though. It's funny because my friend and I were discussing this issue today (out of the blue) - I thought that China would be more supportive of harsher measures, while he was worried that Iran would help the North. I think China is pivotal in the sanctions getting anywhere. Of course the problem is that things like sanctions, or even military action: they hurt the common person more than Kim Jong Il, you know?

I hope this post made sense, I'm feeling tired and rather incoherent.

elisheva · 10-10-2006, 06:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by goodnightboy (View Post)

I think it's different when somewhere in your history, you've actually suffered under Japanese militarism. And they did some really disgusting things those days. They occupied my country for three years, and compared to the suffering of the Chinese etc, ours was nothing, but it is still the dark part of our history. To be very honest with you airbrushing over their militarism with inverted commas is not something that's gone down well with me, and it won't go down well to anyone whose country's history has been darkened by experience with Japanese militarism.

Having said that, however, times have changed and Japan do have honourable intentions for wanting to increase the activities of their military.

Both good points

It seems to me (although I confess off the bat I know very little about Japanese history specifically) that Japan has changed a lot in the past 50+ years - Japanese imperialism/militarism was a huge concern to the surrounding areas for quite some time, and Japanese soldiers certianly didn't treat other populations particularly well.

I'm also more concerned about Iran, but this is plenty scary in its own right.

-Kelly- · 10-10-2006, 06:50 AM

I can't understand, why America....would attack North Korea? it makes no senses to me.
Why would they said that

goodnightboy · 10-10-2006, 07:17 AM

Japan has changed a lot in the past half decade or so since the end of WWII, and thank goodness for that! Oh, and I love your signature by the way. Gorgeous. e. e. cummings is so good.

I don't think they will, I suppose it's just one of those things being bandied aroudn by experts talking about the various ways out of the whole mess the world is now in. I doubt the US will attack, they're very stretched and after the whole Iraq debacle I'm quite sure they've realised they can't ignore the rest of the world and attack anyone unilaterally (I, however, am very aware of the fact that SHOULD an invasion occur it could be with the blessing of the Security Council, the Western European countries, allies of the States...or it might not even be the US attacking).

It's pretty much all speculation at this point in time.

Lexis · 10-10-2006, 07:44 AM

Now the North is saying that they want a resolution before an "unfortunate incident" occurs in which they would be forced to fire a nuclear missile.

Please - unfortunate incident? They are so trying to scare the hell out of the West.

clone · 10-10-2006, 08:00 AM

Ok. So I'm not sure if you guys care about this but it came out of Stratfor today so I'll snip. As always it's long so if you want the entire report let me know.

Quote:

When U.S. military planners have nightmares, they have nightmares about war with North Korea. Even the idea of limited strikes against the isolated nation is fraught with potential escalations. The problem is the mission. A limited attack against nuclear facilities might destabilize North Korea or lead North Korea to the conclusion that the United States would intend regime change.

Regime preservation is the entire point of its nuclear capability. Therefore, it is quite conceivable that Kim Jong-Il and his advisors -- or other factions --might construe even the most limited military strikes against targets directly related to missile development or a nuclear program as an act threatening the regime, and therefore one that necessitates a fierce response. Regime survival could very easily entail a full, unlimited reprisal by the Korean People's Army (KPA) to any military strike whatsoever on North Korean soil.

North Korea has some 10,000 fortified artillery pieces trained on Seoul. It is essential to understand that South Korea's capital city, a major population center and the industrial heartland of South Korea, is within range of conventional artillery. The United States has been moving its forces out of range of these guns, but the South Koreans cannot move their capital.

Add to this the fact that North Korea has more than 100 No-Dong missiles that can reach deep into South Korea, as well as to Japan, and we can see that the possibility for retaliation is very real. Although the No-Dong has not always been the most reliable weapon, just the possibility of dozens of strikes against U.S. forces in Korea and other cities in Korea and Japan presents a daunting scenario.

North Korea has cultivated a reputation for unpredictability. Although it has been fairly conservative in its actions compared to its rhetoric, the fact is that no one can predict North Korea's response to strikes against its nuclear facilities. And with Seoul at risk -- a city of 20 million people -- the ability to take risks is limited.

The United States must assume, for the sake of planning, that U.S. airstrikes would be followed by massed artillery fire on Seoul. Now, massed artillery is itself not immune to countermeasures. But North Korea's artillery lies deep inside caves and fortifications all along the western section of the demilitarized zone (DMZ). An air campaign against these guns would take a long time, during which enormous damage would be done to Seoul and the South Korean economy -- perhaps on the order of several hundred thousand high-explosive rounds per hour. Even using tactical nuclear weapons against this artillery would pose serious threats to Seoul. The radiation from even low-yield weapons could force the evacuation of the city.

<snip>

[about DPRK] Fifty years of concerted military fortification would make Hezbollah's preparations in southern Lebanon look like child's play.

<snip>

There are two advantages the United States has. The first is time. There is a huge difference between a nuclear device and a deployable nuclear weapon. The latter has to be shaped into a small, rugged package able to be launched on a missile or dropped from a plane. Causing atomic fission is not the same as having a weapon.

The second advantage is distance. The United States is safe and far away from North Korea. Four other powers -- Russia, China, South Korea and Japan -- have much more to fear from North Korea than the United States does. The United States will always act unilaterally if it feels that it has no other way to protect its national interest. As it is, however, U.S. national interest is not at stake.

ETA: Little birdies are saying the test was not a success. That only the HE went off and the weapon never went critical.

FWIW

2nd Edit [not that anyone reads my posts]: I finally found some public data on the test "failure". @ ArmsControlWonk

Cathangel · 10-10-2006, 04:17 PM

I'm not as much worried about Kim Jong-Il starting a nuclear war as him selling nuclear technology to terrorist cells for cash to get around the economic sanctions that are coming. If terrorist cells who don't value their own lives above their cause manage to get their hands on nuclear technology, it will pose a massive threat to the world.


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