News & Politics - Campaign in Iraq has increased terrorism threat, says American intelligence report

TokyoNiGHTS · 09-26-2006, 09:32 PM

Quote:

An authoritative US intelligence report pooling the views of 16 government agencies concludes America's campaign in Iraq has increased the threat of terrorism.

Quote:

The report, Trends in Global Terrorism: Implications for the United States, points out the "centrality" of the US invasion of Iraq in fomenting terrorist cells and attacks. One section of the 30-page report, Indicators of the Spread of the Global Jihadist Movement, describes how the American presence in Iraq has helped spread radical Islam by providing a focal point for anti-Americanism.

Quote:

The report's tone contradicts recent optimistic assertions by the US administration. It also furthers the divisions between the military and politicians in their assessment of the impact of US policy in Iraq.

In his speech to mark the fifth anniversary of the attacks of 9/11, President Bush said: "The world is safer because Saddam Hussein is no longer in power. The safety of America depends on the outcome of the battle in the streets of Baghdad."

Guardian Unlimited | Special reports | Campaign in Iraq has increased terrorism threat, says American intelligence report

I'm sure some people will continue to ignore this, but i'd say its a big deal. It basically proves what alot of people have been saying to be right, and it's that we aren't safer. And on top of that this "war on terror" has managed to make the terrorists even stronger. But yet our goal to defeat an enemy that actually gets stronger and bigger the longer we fight them? It's no surprise that Bush once said that the war wouldn't be completed under him and would instead be up to the next president to complete. He hasn't the slightest clue of how to complete it because the goal is unbelievably unrealistic.

Lexis · 09-27-2006, 12:26 AM

It is a big deal. It kind of makes you shake your head at what a mess this whole war has been.

**sum1** · 09-27-2006, 05:52 AM

Managed properly the Iraq war would have reduced terrorism. As it is I don't know if I believe these reports, it's not like the people making them don't have their own views and motivations which can shape what they put in their reports. One way or another, in the long run the Iraq war still has a chance to reduce terrorism.

TokyoNiGHTS · 09-27-2006, 07:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sum1 (View Post)

Managed properly the Iraq war would have reduced terrorism. As it is I don't know if I believe these reports, it's not like the people making them don't have their own views and motivations which can shape what they put in their reports. One way or another, in the long run the Iraq war still has a chance to reduce terrorism.

You honestly believe there's a chance that 16 (the number of people who collected and agreed on this report) all have an agenda and want the American people to believe that its caused more terrorism? Don't you think its a bit far fetched?

Could terrorism have been reduced with the war going properly? Possibly. But it hasn't gone right. It's still not going right. Troops don't have the armor or weapons they need, they don't really have the troop levels they need and you've got the group they're fighting growing while they're shrinking.

People often ask "But why don't they report the good news" but this answers their questions partially. There isn't a whole lot of good news, no matter how much some peopel would love to convince themself of such a thing.

clone · 09-27-2006, 08:01 AM

For some reason I'm the excerpt guy so ya'll can read for yourself.

http://www.boston.com/news/special/n...t_excerpts.pdf

I copied this from a PDF so the format is kinda screwy

Quote:

Declassified Key Judgments of the National
Intelligence Estimate

United States-led counterterrorism efforts have seriously damaged the leadership of al-Qa’ida and disrupted its operations; however, we judge that al-Qa’ida will continue to pose the greatest threat to the Homeland and US interests abroad by a single terrorist organization.

We also assess that the global jihadist movement—which includes al-Qa’ida, affiliated and independent terrorist groups, and emerging networks and cells—is spreading and adapting to counterterrorism efforts.

• Although we cannot measure the extent of the spread with precision, a large body of all-source reporting indicates that activists identifying themselves as jihadists, although a small percentage of Muslims, are increasing in both number and geographic dispersion.

• If this trend continues, threats to US interests at home and abroad will become
more diverse, leading to increasing attacks worldwide.

• Greater pluralism and more responsive political systems in Muslim majority
nations would alleviate some of the grievances jihadists exploit. Over time, such
progress, together with sustained, multifaceted programs targeting the
vulnerabilities of the jihadist movement and continued pressure on al-Qa’ida,
could erode support for the jihadists. We assess that the global jihadist movement is decentralized, lacks a coherent global strategy, and is becoming more diffuse. New jihadist networks and cells, with anti- American agendas, are increasingly likely to emerge. The confluence of shared purpose and dispersed actors will make it harder to find and undermine jihadist groups.

• We assess that the operational threat from self-radicalized cells will grow in
importance to US counterterrorism efforts, particularly abroad but also in the
Homeland.

• The jihadists regard Europe as an important venue for attacking Western interests.

<snip>

• The Iraq conflict has become the "cause celebre" for jihadists, breeding a deep
resentment of US involvement in the Muslim world and cultivating supporters for
the global jihadist movement. Should jihadists leaving Iraq perceive themselves,
and be perceived, to have failed, we judge fewer fighters will be inspired to carry
on the fight.

<snip>

• Four underlying factors are fueling the spread of the jihadist movement:
(1) Entrenched grievances, such as corruption, injustice, and fear of Western
domination, leading to anger, humiliation, and a sense of powerlessness;

(2) the Iraq jihad

(3) the slow pace of real and sustained economic, social, and
political reforms in many Muslim majority nations; and

(4) pervasive anti-US sentiment among most Muslims all of which jihadists exploit.

<snip>

• The jihadists' greatest vulnerability is that their ultimate political solution, an
ultra-conservative interpretation of shari'a-based governance spanning the
Muslim world, is unpopular with the vast majority of Muslims. Exposing the
religious and political straitjacket that is implied by the jihadists, propaganda
would help to divide them from the audiences they seek to persuade.

(here's a positive)

• Recent condemnations of violence and extremist religious interpretations by a few notable Muslim clerics signal a trend that could facilitate the growth of a
constructive alternative to jihadist ideology: peaceful political activism. This also
could lead to the consistent and dynamic participation of broader Muslim
communities in rejecting violence, reducing the ability of radicals to capitalize on
passive community support. In this way, the Muslim mainstream emerges as the
most powerful weapon in the war on terror.

<snip>

• The loss of key leaders, particularly Usama Bin Ladin, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and
al-Zarqawi, in rapid succession, probably would cause the group to fracture into
smaller groups. Although like-minded individuals would endeavor to carry on the
mission, the loss of these key leaders would exacerbate strains and disagreements.

<snip>

Anti-US and anti-globalization sentiment is on the rise and fueling other radical
ideologies. This could prompt some leftist, nationalist, or separatist groups to adopt terrorist methods to attack US interests. The radicalization process is occurring more quickly, more widely, and more anonymously in the Internet age, raising the likelihood of surprise attacks by unknown groups whose members and supporters may be difficult to pinpoint.

• We judge that groups of all stripes will increasingly use the Internet to
communicate, propagandize, recruit, train, and obtain logistical and financial
support.

ceilirose · 09-27-2006, 08:42 AM

The Bush spokesmen were out in force last night on TV talking about this report as being objective because of the particular paragraph that clone highlighted.

That isn't all that bad however to me that option was way in the future and the US won't be a part of that - we've simply increased the level of anti-Americanism there to the point where no one is going to listen to us. As long as Bush is in office we're just treading water.

TokyoNiGHTS · 09-27-2006, 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ceilirose (View Post)

The Bush spokesmen were out in force last night on TV talking about this report as being objective because of the particular paragraph that clone highlighted.

It's funny that Bush is saying some of the report is false (the whoel part about us not being safe) but other parts of the report that say that if we left Iraq that things would get worse is true. Ofcourse that's the case. If you start a fire in a forest and just walk away its going to spread. But I guess the difference is between that and this is that we know how to put a fire out even if it does take alot of time. We don't know what to do with this Iraq situation. This is a perfect example of how to get in over your head.

It's amazing just how much the perception of this country has changed because of Bush. No, some countries never really liked us. But they didn't hate us this much, and even countries that did like us now look down on us because of Bush (although they still like the peopel in the US, just not our government).

Lexis · 09-27-2006, 10:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sum1 (View Post)

Managed properly the Iraq war would have reduced terrorism. As it is I don't know if I believe these reports, it's not like the people making them don't have their own views and motivations which can shape what they put in their reports. One way or another, in the long run the Iraq war still has a chance to reduce terrorism.

I think managed properly, the Iraq war could have been a good thing and probably would have had a knock on effect that might have reduced terrorism. I just think it was shaky from the start and that's a real shame.

ceilirose · 09-27-2006, 10:49 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TokyoNiGHTS (View Post)

It's funny that Bush is saying some of the report is false (the whoel part about us not being safe) but other parts of the report that say that if we left Iraq that things would get worse is true. Ofcourse that's the case.

Ah..he tries to have it both ways. I think I just heard him say that it is naive to think that the US has created more terrorists with the Iraq War than solved a problem. I have to go with people who have spent their careers in intelligence being able to see a situation more clearly than Bush.

**sum1** · 09-28-2006, 10:48 AM

TokyoNiGHTS · 09-28-2006, 11:12 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sum1 (View Post)

From the report:In other words, promoting democracy in middle eastern countries will help against terrorism.

Ofcourse it can help. The problem again is that it's not going well. ceilirose recently posted a report that the Iraq police academy that had been set up is in a word a "disaster". We're fighting to get somewhere but unless there is a very large amount of people fighting along with us (specifically Iraqi's) we're going to get nowhere. The evidence of that is the situation we're in now. We're literally nowhere. Yes Iraqi's voted and its a good thing, but what exactly has that done to change things (in terms of violence) in the Middle East? Nothing. It's still incredibly violent, moreso than ever, and there's still an incredible amount of hatred toward America. And neither of those are changing.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sum1 (View Post)

In other words if the terrorists are allowed to win in Iraq that will encourage an increase in terrorism worldwide. The US can't cut and run and leave victory in the hands of the terrorists.

Ofcourse, but this all goes back to why it wasn't smart to get into this war in the first place. Especially without proper backing from other nations. We can't do this on our own and again the evidence is there to support it. We've got a naive adminstration and president who's got us into a disaster and they nor anyone else know when we'll ever be able to get out.

I think the entire report supports the people who said we shouldn't have went over there in the first place. It's too big of a job, and there's no real plan for how it can possibly be completed. We've got ourself into something that we can't handle because of an administration that thinks we're invincible. Yes in a perfect world it'd be nice to go and help people in the Middle East (again ignoring why we really went over there) but its not. We can't just going running into countries and expecting them to sing our praises, and that is exactly what was suppose to happen here (we'll be seen as liberators).

ceilirose · 09-28-2006, 11:16 AM

The full NIE report has still not been released:

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...1_intel28.html

clone · 09-28-2006, 11:21 AM

Yeah we're still looking at the key findings.... the details on how the NID came up with the conclusions are still classified.

**sum1** · 09-28-2006, 11:40 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TokyoNiGHTS (View Post)

I think the entire report supports the people who said we shouldn't have went over there in the first place.

The report supports deveoping democracy in the Middle East as a way to combat terrorism. That supports going into Iraq. Had the war been managed properly a report like this wouldn't have anything to say against it. Going into Iraq was right, mismanaging things there was not.

TokyoNiGHTS · 09-28-2006, 11:52 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sum1 (View Post)

Going into Iraq was right, mismanaging things there was not.

It absolutely wasn't. The original reasons given weren't true. No matter how much people want to now believe it to be the case, we didn't invade Iraq to free the Iraqi people. Do you really think that if Bush had tried to push for the invasion on that premise that it would've went through? Because we'd be able to invade many countries on such a premise of helping the people. But that wasn't why we went, we went because of supposed WMD's which were a threat to the US, supposed connections between 9/11 and Saddam ect. Both of which have been proven wrong. There's no reason we should give a greenlight for this adminstration to just make up things as they go along.


Fan Forum > General Discussion > News & Politics > Campaign in Iraq has increased terrorism threat, says American intelligence report