Milt Palacio

To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe:

1- That the exit polls were WRONG...

2- That Zogby's 5pm election day calls for Kerry winning OH, FL were WRONG. He was exactly RIGHT in his 2000 final poll.

3- That Harris last minute polling for Kerry was WRONG. He was exactly RIGHT in his 2000 final poll.

4- The Incumbent Rule I (that undecideds break for the challenger)was WRONG.

5- The 50% Rule was WRONG (that an incumbent doesn't do better than his final polling)

6- The Approval Rating Rule was WRONG (that an incumbent with less than 50% approval will most likely lose the election)

7- That Greg Palast was WRONG when he said that even before the election, 1 million votes were stolen from Kerry. He was the ONLY reporter to break the fact that 90,000 Florida blacks were disnfranchised in 2000.

8- That it was just a COINCIDENCE that the exit polls were CORRECT where there WAS a PAPER TRAIL and INCORRECT (+5% for Bush) where there was NO PAPER TRAIL.

9- That the surge in new young voters had NO positive effect for Kerry.

10- That Bush BEAT 99-1 mathematical odds in winning the election.

11- That Kerry did WORSE than Gore agains an opponent who LOST the support of SCORES of Republican newspapers who were for Bush in 2000.

12- That Bush did better than an 18 national poll average which showed him tied with Kerry at 47. In other words, Bush got 80% of the undecided vote to end up with a 51-48 majority - when ALL professional pollsters agree that the undecided vote ALWAYS goes to the challenger.

13- That Voting machines made by Republicans with no paper trail and with no software publication, which have been proven by thousands of computer scientists to be vulnerable in scores of ways, were NOT tampered with in this election.

Milt Palacio

Part II. To believe that Bush won the election, you must also believe:

1. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage in FL by 4%. Based on 2846 individuals exit polled, the polling margin of error was 1.84%.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 1667.

2. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentage in OH by 3%. Based on 1963 individuals exit polled, the polling margin of error was 2.21%.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 333.

3. That his vote tallies could exceed his exit poll percentages in 41 out of 51 states.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 135,000.

4. That his vote tallies could exceed the margin of error in 16 states. Not one state vote tally exceeded the MOE for Kerry.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 13.5 Trillion.

5. That his vote tallies could exceed a 2% exit poll margin of error in 23 states.
The probability of this occurrence: as close to ZERO as you can get.

6. That of 88 documented touch screen incidents, 86 voters would see their vote for Kerry come up Bush - and only TWO from Bush to Kerry.
The probability of this occurrence: as close to ZERO as you can get.

7. That Mitofsky, with 25 years of experience, has lost his exit polling touch.

8. That by disputing the Ukrainian elections, the Bush administration would base its case on the accuracy of U.S. sponsored exit polling, while at the same time ignoring exit polls in the U.S. presidential election, which the media reported Kerry was winning handily.

9. That Bush could overcome Kerry’s 50.8% - 48.2% lead in the National Exit Poll Sub-sample (13,047 polled) and win the popular vote: 51.2% - 48.4%, a 3.0% increase from the exit poll to the vote tally, far beyond the 0.86% margin of error.
The odds of this occurrence: 1 out of 282 Billion.

COOLCAT200

Personally Nothing in the polls showed me that the President or Kerry had a big lead so no matter the out come of election I would not have been shocked. If Kerry had won I would not have been shocked. Just like I was not when the President was reelected. I do feel he won this one fair.

SuperDeluxe

And the two most important facts:

286-252 and 60.6 million>57.2 million

Which is far more believable/reliable than exit polling.

(wasnt there discussion that more women responded to exit polling than men? and if thats the case, could be why all the exit polling was wrong)

ETA: and no offense, 99% of your reasons why bush lost was exit polling.

Thats all you really had to post, since the most of your other parts we're tied into Exit polls. If you believe that the exit polls are wrong, you can pretty much cancel out all of the other things.

mh67511

Well, he won. So all of those must be true I guess.

Milt Palacio

You obviously didn't read any of the large amount of stuff I posted on fraud.

This post ONLY dealt with exit polling issues.

The best evidence of fraud will come when the Rethugs in the Senate and Congress vote down new election reform bills. They don't want a paper trail, they want electronic voting that leaves no trail and can easily be hacked.

P.S. Have fun trying to pay for college when Bush takes away your Pell Grant, mh.

TokyoNiGHTS

I don't think Kerry did worse than Gore. It's just that Bush brought up the gay marriage debate and scared a bunch of Americans about the idea and that basically won him the White House. There wasn't much that Kerry could do since if he'd came out and acted like Bush on the subject he would've lost alot of Democratic support. Once the gay issue came out, Democrats were done for. Fear Tactics my friend. Plain and simple. That's what Bush used.

Milt Palacio

Bush and Kerry had the same exact policy regarding gay marriage.

Based on the statistics I've provided, it's a near mathematical impossibility that Bush won the election! And these facts were provided by a professional statistician, I didn't do them myself!

Electronic voting makes it easy for the Rethugs to commit fraud. They two companies that design and manufacture the voting machines are controlled by Republicans.

And again, here's a 100+ page report containing evidence of irregularities and voting fraud in Ohio:

http://truthout.org/Conyersreport.pdf

Milt Palacio

Here's a sworn affadavit from Clint Curtis:

http://rawstory.com/images/pdfs/CC_Affidavit_120604.pdf

Curtis was a prestigious computer programmer who was asked back in 2000 by Republican Congressman Tom Feeney to write vote-rigging code to be used in Florida voting machines to help the Republicans win. The facts can be read in the affadavit.

WalkingOnSunshine

It was pretty obvious during election night that the exit polls were way off.

I thought the reason for more electronic voting was because of all the problems voters faced in 2000? (i.e. hanging chads and such) Is that not the case?

Kind of like the draft issue which was a scare/fear tactic that Kerry used?

Milt Palacio

I love how you assume that is was the the polls that were way off.

Again, the statistical chance that the exit polls were that far off are close to zero. And also notice that all the exit poll discrepancies favored Bush.

If we don't get rid of voting machines the Republicans will continue to steal elections and ruin this country.

Every state should have non-punch paper ballots like we use in New Hampshire.

WalkingOnSunshine

Kind of seems like a cheap shot but moving on.

What exactly is that? I know here in Virginia we have a mix of the electronic voting and then when you place the card in the voting booth and punch out with a pen the candidate you want.

TokyoNiGHTS

Bush wanted gay marriage banned, Kerry was against gay marriage but said he didn't feel it was right for him to put a law banning it. He said he'd leave it up for the states to do what they chose. Bush was doing exactly what religious people wanted and that was him trying to put a complete stop to it even happening.

I don't remember Kerry constantly bring up the draft issue like Bush did with his stance on banning gay marriage. Alot of Bush's campaign was run on that policy, I don't think Kerry ran on the "if Bush is elected there will be a draft" stance.

Milt Palacio

That's absolutely not true. Both felt it was wrong but were going to let the states decide.

In New Hampshire, we have paper ballots and markers. You just darken the circle next to the candidate you choose. Much harder to have fraud when you have paper ballots that leave a trail and can be hand recounted.

TheAngel

Can't we just put this damn election behind us? I can believe that some of the votes were wrong, possibly even a couple hundred thousand, tops, but there's no way, even if every vote was recounted, that Kerry would get majoity, and in my opinion that's what matters as opposed to this pathetic electoral college stuff. But Bush is in office for another four years and you need a life.