Everwood - Sports #18: Football, Soccer, Basketball, Hockey... sports talk 24/7 - Page 3

Everwoodian Kopite · 11-10-2009, 10:15 PM

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Originally Posted by everwoodfan52 (View Post)

Depression is such a powerful thing.

Germany Goalkeeper Robert Enke Dies Age 32 - Goal.com

Just awful that. Bit of a cliché what I'm saying now, but it really puts things into perspective. Makes my own problems with LFC and women seem insignificant.

My thoughts go out to his family.

YNWA

Wilpen · 11-11-2009, 10:05 AM

espn

Puck

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ARLINGTON, Va. -- Alex Ovechkin says he was joking when he told a reporter over the weekend that he could be out more than a month.

The Washington Capitals star practiced lightly Monday and said he would actually miss about a week.

Maybe I'm way too serious of a person but I don't find this funny. Why would this nitwit lie or in his stupid mind, joke, about this? He's obviously an attention-whore which doesn't impress me. You are getting attention on the ice because you're ultra talented, we get it, but this sideshow stuff is lame if you ask me. It's probably why I prefer a Crosby. He might be considered boring in interviews but he doesn't cry out for attention any chance he gets. He's also nice to look at.

Article on the World Cup

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By Nate Silver
Special to ESPN.com

When we were in the development stages of the Soccer Power Index, wrestling with how to make the system as informative as possible, I was asked a seemingly simple question by one of ESPN's soccer writers that I had an incredibly difficult time answering. "Why rate the teams at all?" he asked. "Isn't that what they play the games for?"

Some of this, ultimately, is a cultural difference. We Americans -- we like to rate things, whether it's the schools we send our children to, the food we eat or the teams we root for. It's in our DNA. Other cultures sometimes take a bit more of a holistic approach toward things.

It was a good question, though. Somebody is going to win the World Cup in South Africa next year. Perhaps it will be a team such as Brazil or Spain, which would surprise approximately no one. But it also could be a dark horse -- Chile or the Ivory Coast or Serbia, or the United States -- this is a fairly deep field. Whichever team prevails will have played tremendous soccer and earned every karat of gold on the FIFA World Cup Trophy.

As Herb Brooks said to the United States hockey team before the "Miracle on Ice" against the Soviet Union -- "If we played 'em 10 times, they might win nine -- but not this game, not tonight." Brooks was undoubtedly right: If the US and the USSR had played a 10-game series, the Americans would have been lucky to win once. But it was the once that counted -- and the abstraction of whether the USSR was the "better" team, maybe rated higher by a computer formula, didn't matter.

So then: Why rate the teams at all? Well, from my perspective, we do it not because we're interested in the past, but because we're interested in the future. The SPI ratings are intended to be forward-looking. They're intended to be predictive; every variable in the SPI has been tuned to give you the best possible objective and statistical forecast of how a team will perform in South Africa. This concept might differ somewhat from a retrospective or backward-looking ratings system. The SPI ratings are not trying to reward or punish teams based on their past results. Rather, they are trying to predict which teams will have the most success going forward.

Of course, this is easier said than done. While 19 of the first 20 teams in the SPI entered November either having qualified or with a shot to qualify for the World Cup, the challenge in preparing an international soccer ratings system is that there is relatively little reliable data to go by, as compared with other sports. If a particular international team is not engaged in a major competition, such as the World Cup, it might play only a handful of meaningful matches each year. Compare that to a 162-game season in baseball, an 82-game season in basketball or hockey, or a 16-game season in American pro football.

Many of these games, moreover, might be against teams of inferior quality, or they might feature marginal lineups as many of a team's star players are engaged in club competition and have not returned home. For that reason, it is important to be somewhat expansive about the amount of data we use. Things such as margin of victory and home-field advantage, which are ignored by some other ratings systems, play a fairly large role in SPI. More distinctively, SPI blends ratings from club competition with those from international play, providing for a more robust assessment of the level of talent on a particular team.

Although I would encourage you to read the much longer and more formal article on SPI's methodology in addition to this one, let's talk for a moment about how some of these things play out in practice.

• Goal differential: Think goal differential doesn't matter in soccer? Tell that to Mobutu Sese Seko, the former dictator of Zaire, who threatened his nation's players in the 1974 World Cup, telling them they wouldn't be allowed to return home if they lost to Brazil 4-0. Thankfully, the Zaireans held the Brazilians to just three goals.

More practically speaking, goal differential does matter in a variety of ways in international soccer. As the first tiebreaker, for instance, it often determines who advances to the knockout stage of the World Cup. But that's not why we include it; we include it because of its predictive power. There's just a lot of information you're throwing away if you don't look at the scoring margin, especially given the disparities in the quality of competition. It's virtually impossible to beat Brazil at home: Does a team that manages a competitive 2-1 defeat really deserve to be treated the same as one that drops the match 7-0? If a team barely holds on against the Faeroe Islands or San Marino in a European qualifier, would that really give you confidence about its likelihood of success against tougher competition?

What SPI doesn't do is reward teams for running up the score against poor competition. Australia's 31-0 win against the hapless American Samoa in 2001, for instance, is treated as no more than about a 4-1 win against normal competition. Once the adjustment is made for quality of competition, however, we do give teams credit for each additional goal they score or allow.

A good example of a team for which this matters is Uruguay, which had the third-best goal differential in South American qualifying. Uruguay had won a handful of blowout matches but lost some close ones. Perhaps this was an example of a team that couldn't perform in the clutch? Well, not really: When it needed critical wins against Ecuador and Colombia, Uruguay got them, and the team is now the heavy favorite to defeat Costa Rica in the home-and-home playoff and become the fifth South American team in the World Cup.

• Home-field advantage: Home field is tremendously important in international soccer -- it's worth the equivalent of about 0.6 goals in a sport in which the average team scores 1.4. That's the equivalent of home-field advantage being worth about 8 points in the NFL, a sport in which the average team scores 20 points a game (in actuality, home-field advantage is worth only a field goal in the NFL.) Yet some other rating systems ignore it. That would be fine if home and away games balanced out, but they don't always: Switzerland, for instance, played a bunch of extra home games in 2008 because it co-hosted the European Championships. Wealthy teams such as the United States might play the vast majority of their friendlies at home, but poorer ones such as Ivory Coast are almost always on the road (this is one big reason we have Ivory Coast rated higher than those other systems.)

• Competitiveness coefficients: International soccer is unusual in that lineups rotate frequently from game to game. Sometimes this depends on the whims of the coach ("cough" … Diego Maradona … "cough"), but more than that, it's a simple calculation of how much is at stake. It's as though, on some occasions, the New York Yankees are the New York Yankees and, on others, the Yankees have been replaced by the team's Triple-A affiliate, the Columbus Clippers.

Take, for example, Mexico's 5-0 thrashing of the United States on July 27 in the finals of the Gold Cup. You might think that, this being the finals of a "major" international competition, it would be taken relatively seriously. But that's not how either of the teams was treating it. The United States was resting its starters after they'd returned from their successful performance in the Confederations' Cup. Mexico had, perhaps, two or three players in the lineup who are likely to see substantial playing time in South Africa next year. It was treated as a developmental game by both teams.

The way we work around this is through a weighting system we call competitiveness coefficients, which basically measure, on a scale from 0 to 1, the quality of the lineup each team is using. If the players in the lineup that day are the same ones who are playing in matches that we know to be important -- key World Cup qualifiers, the Confederations Cup, the European Championships, the World Cup itself -- the game will be weighted highly. If the B-teams are in there, it might barely be weighted at all. And that's the case, indeed, with the Gold Cup final -- it receives the minimum weight of 0.01, or about 1/100th of the weighting a World Cup match that is vital for both teams might receive. The match simply doesn't have any real predictive power, any more than a game between the Yankees' and Red Sox's farm teams would. And of course, this is also true of most (although not all) international friendlies, which SPI weights less than other systems do.

• Separate ratings for offense and defense: Certainly, the two things cannot be separated entirely in soccer -- it is too fluid a sport. But one of the things that makes soccer distinctive is that teams play at entirely different paces -- take the conservative Swedes, for instance, against a much more up-tempo team such as Mexico or Ivory Coast. And, of course, some teams have concentrations of their better players on their attack or on their defense. For this reason, we provide separate ratings for offense and defense. These are listed on the team page, accessed by clicking on the team name. The offensive and defensive ratings are calculated separately before being combined to produce an overall grade. And it turns out the difference is not entirely cosmetic because different types of teams match up differently against one another. We have found, for instance, in looking at thousands of games played since 1998, that defense-minded teams hold up better against tough competition but are more vulnerable to an upset against weaker sides. This is especially true in games, such as those in the World Cup knockout stage, that can go to a shootout, where goalkeeping skill is crucial. Because almost all of the teams in South Africa next year are tough, this means that defense-oriented teams such as Italy are somewhat stronger than their SPI suggests and that more freewheeling teams such as Serbia are more vulnerable. (Indeed, this is part of why the defense-first Italians have tended to have so much success in the World Cup).

• Club competition: Probably the most controversial part of the SPI is that it uses data from club competitions as well as from international play. The way it does this is complicated, and the longer explanation is reserved for the methodology piece. But basically, we've taken results from every recent game in the four key European leagues (England, Germany, Italy and Spain), plus the Champions League, and assigned credit or blame to the individual players on the pitch based on the results of those matches. If Samuel Eto'o scores a goal for Inter Milan, Cameroon also will get a little bit of credit in its SPI. If Petr Cech has a clean sheet for Chelsea, that will improve the Czech Republic's ratings a little bit. And so forth.

We have designed the club-based ratings very carefully; soccer is more a team sport than an individual one, so both team performance and the performance of the players as individuals are evaluated as part of the system. We also have taken care to make sure no team is advantaged or disadvantaged merely by having players who happen to participate in the "big four" leagues. A player doesn't get credit merely for playing in, say, La Liga. He gets credit if he and his team play well, and might lose points for his international team if he doesn't.

Nevertheless, when used the right way, this information provides for a much deeper portrait of a team than you might get from other ratings systems. For instance, we can better differentiate a team, such as France or Argentina, that is merely underachieving and liable to bounce back before South Africa from one, such as Paraguay or Australia, that has few international stars and probably has been playing over its head. Again, the goal of the SPI is to be predictive -- and that means looking not just at the results but also at the talent.

This is not an exhaustive list of the things that make SPI unique. But certainly, even with all the information it does account for, SPI is not going to be perfect. Soccer is a rich, wonderful, and unpredictable sport, and indeed it would be quite a shame if a single number could tell us everything we needed to know about a soccer team. Fortunately, the SPI ratings do not. They merely reflect the relatively limited statistical information that is available in international soccer, and do so in a way that is as fair, accurate and predictive as possible. In other words, SPI is designed to serve as a general guideline. I'm sure it will start a few debates -- but I don't expect it to settle them.

**everwoodfan52** · 11-11-2009, 11:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Everwoodian Kopite (View Post)

Just awful that. Bit of a cliché what I'm saying now, but it really puts things into perspective. Makes my own problems with LFC and women seem insignificant.

My thoughts go out to his family.

YNWA

Yes, something like this definitely causes us not to sweat the small stuff and to realize that situations could be a lot worse.

BBC NEWS | Europe | Wife on footballer's depression

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He's obviously an attention-whore which doesn't impress me.

Well, with a face like that...you need to get attention any way that you can.

Michelle...very informative article. Thanks for posting it.

Wilpen · 11-11-2009, 12:31 PM

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Originally Posted by everwoodfan52 (View Post)

Well, with a face like that...you need to get attention any way that you can.

Too true!

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Michelle...very informative article. Thanks for posting it.

If you had to guess right now... how would you predict what the US is going to do? I know, anything can happen, and that was the general summary of the article I posted, but what are your thoughts on USA based on the players that they have and how you believe they will do?

We did beat Spain. Yes, I still cannot get over this amazing accomplishment. Of course, the English media couldn't either (but in a different way) and I loved every minute of their eating some serious rocks that must have been very hard to swallow and digest.

SPORTSUSA · 11-11-2009, 02:09 PM

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Originally Posted by Wilpen (View Post)

Maybe I'm way too serious of a person but I don't find this funny. Why would this nitwit lie or in his stupid mind, joke, about this? He's obviously an attention-whore which doesn't impress me. You are getting attention on the ice because you're ultra talented, we get it, but this sideshow stuff is lame if you ask me.

100% concur. He's a show off showboat, that's all he is. He felt he was important enough to joke about his return and he knew the media would eat up every word he uttered, even lies. What a knob. I don't find it funny either. Play the game and shut up, dude, and while you're at it, get plastic surgery! LOL.

**'Tos** · 11-11-2009, 03:36 PM

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Originally Posted by Erin

100% concur. He's a show off showboat, that's all he is. He felt he was important enough to joke about his return and he knew the media would eat up every word he uttered, even lies.

And he was 100% right, no? Just saying.

Not the best thing to joke about, though, for sure. I'll feel better when he gets on the ice rather than any of antics off it. At least on the ice, he's pure passion. I think he's just getting antsy to be playing again, personally.

**everwoodfan52** · 11-11-2009, 03:57 PM

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Originally Posted by Wilpen (View Post)

Too true!

If you had to guess right now... how would you predict what the US is going to do? I know, anything can happen, and that was the general summary of the article I posted, but what are your thoughts on USA based on the players that they have and how you believe they will do?

I read this recently...I really don't know how reliable it is. I know the the FIFA rankings are considered a joke.

Soccer Power Index (SPI) - ESPN

I'm not sure how we'll do. We might be a big surprise or we might stink it up! It will depend on the group that we're in the first round. Last year we were in a really tough group. Mexico was in a better group because they were ranked higher than we were from our area. This year I would believe that we would be ranked higher and be in an easier group.
Another thing that makes me unsure of how we'll do is the fact that we are so inconsistent. We were phenomenal against Spain...but have been crappy against better teams. In addition....our coach still is not sure that he has the right formula for a team. He's still mixing it up and trying out different players. I'm not sure who will be part of the final world cup team.
Finally, the loss of Charlie Davies is really major.

Wilpen · 11-11-2009, 04:01 PM

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Originally Posted by SPORTSUSA (View Post)

100% concur. He's a show off showboat, that's all he is. He felt he was important enough to joke about his return and he knew the media would eat up every word he uttered, even lies. What a knob. I don't find it funny either. Play the game and shut up, dude, and while you're at it, get plastic surgery! LOL.

LOL. He actually makes "ugly" lists. Lol.

I saw a comment where he ripped apart American women, saying we are superficial, fat, and not his type. Really? All I have to say is the fat stereotype is getting old and thank God American women are saved that we are not Ovechkin's type.

Wilpen · 11-11-2009, 04:34 PM

Missed this.

Quote:

Originally Posted by everwoodfan52 (View Post)

I read this recently...I really don't know how reliable it is. I know the the FIFA rankings are considered a joke.

Soccer Power Index (SPI) - ESPN

Those seem fair I guess. I hope England gets slaughtered. Lol.

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I'm not sure how we'll do. We might be a big surprise or we might stink it up! It will depend on the group that we're in the first round. Last year we were in a really tough group. Mexico was in a better group because they were ranked higher than we were from our area. This year I would believe that we would be ranked higher and be in an easier group.
Another thing that makes me unsure of how we'll do is the fact that we are so inconsistent. We were phenomenal against Spain...but have been crappy against better teams. In addition....our coach still is not sure that he has the right formula for a team. He's still mixing it up and trying out different players. I'm not sure who will be part of the final world cup team.
Finally, the loss of Charlie Davies is really major.

That is a major loss.

Who is essentially picking up the slack for him? And I know.. it seems we can get up for matches that we have no business winning (Spain) and we play like punks during matches that we should handle easily. I think that's proof it comes down to it being such a mental game. I honestly think we have proven we can play anyone... we beat Spain and ALMOST beat Brazil to win it all... that says something. We are very capable. It's the mental side of it that we need to work on and you're absolutely right, the coaching is a bit iffy too. I hope that gets worked out!

SPORTSUSA · 11-11-2009, 05:32 PM

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Originally Posted by Wilpen (View Post)

LOL. He actually makes "ugly" lists. Lol.

I've seen a few but they are so bad I thought it would be too much rippage bringing it over here.

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I saw a comment where he ripped apart American women, saying we are superficial, fat, and not his type. Really? All I have to say is the fat stereotype is getting old and thank God American women are saved that we are not Ovechkin's type.

He said that about American women? LMAO about how American women are saved from him at least.

He's obviously never seen you but then again good for you because you'd have to hit him in the head with a hockey stick to get his ugly face away from you.

On the other hand I find it rich he is making millions playing hockey in our country and insults 50% of Americans in the very country he is making those millions? That disturbs me and makes me loathe him all the more. Also, he's butt ugly... he doesn't even have a right insulting is how I see it! Back to seriousness.. I think that's very low on his part. What a dick. Go back to Russia, you lunatic.

**'Tos** · 11-11-2009, 05:56 PM

Hmm. Unless there's a new quote out there (which there might be), I believe it was Varlamov (the Caps goalie) who said the quote about American women being fat:

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“I have a true love, so I don’t look at any other women. You know, I’m extremely fortunate that I met a Russian girl in America. It’s difficult to look at a lot of the local women. You get the feeling that just don’t take care of themselves! There are an awful lot of heavyset ones. But Russian girls have nice trim figures. I couldn’t imagine myself being with an American girl.”

Ovechkin has said that American girls are pretty, but "Russians are Russians", so I'd be surprised if he's calling them fat now, but I guess he can change he may have changed his mind, hee.

Wilpen · 11-11-2009, 07:36 PM

Yeah, I'm aware of those quotes by both players but this pertains to another bit on a yahoo site:

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Does Alex Ovechkin have a current girlfriend? Any pictures?

He thinks American women are superficial and pigs, so I can guarantee you he isn't dating one of them. (he said as much in a Maxim magazine interview.

This is him last year at a BBall game....he gets caught on the kiss cam.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T8dKn5oQo…
o 9 months ago

I haven't bothered to read Maxim since it's not my thing but that's apparently where he said it unless this guy is lying or stretching the truth, not sure. And not that I even care either. I just thought it was funny though it wouldn't shock me if it's true, but certainly I couldn't care less either way because as my joke goes, American women are saved. Lol.

ETA: Although I'm thinking that could be right on considering he is ripping American women here:

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December 31st, 2008
Ovechkin is an *******

According to PuckDaddy, the Capitals are all pissed off over a Maxim article that portrays him as a Skoal-chomping, womanizing road-raging “Rooshian.” You know, pretty much as the dick anyone can tell he is just by looking at him.

This is the same Ovechkin who made comments about American women for Russian television: “They say hello, I say hey, next thing you know they say rape. It’s about money. Next thing you know you are arrested.”

It’s the same guy who openly admitted last season that for most of the season he was more concerned about his personal stats than about the Caps winning games or making the playoffs.

Let me say for the record, as the Ovechkin bandwagon keeps gaining passengers and speed, that I have never been an Ovechkin fan. I’d say I’ve pretty much hated him since I first laid eyes on him and his arrogant little tinted visor. So the guy skates fast, sure, and he doesn’t shy away from physical contact. He’s still just the latest incarnation of Pavel Bure or Alexander Mogilny – both of whom would have been more willing to get physical, I’d wager, if they had Ovechkin’s 6′2″ 220 pound frame.

I wouldn’t call myself a Sidney Crosby fan in any way, but it astounds me that there is even debate over who is more talented, him or Ovechkin. Crosby is one of the most complete hockey players to achieve superstar status since Mark Messier. If he would stop the whining and the diving and show a little respect for himself and for the game, I would be an enormous Crosby fan. Ovechkin is a two-trick pony: he skates fast and he hits people sometimes. Woo hoo. Besides, if history’s any indication he’s got at most five good years left before the Russian mob busts one of his legs.

Also, there’s this side of the argument:

Ovechkin is an ******* | The Hanged Man

I don't have a lot of respect for this dude. He's good at hockey but his personality is anything but classy. He's completely wrong about American women. He seems like he was rejected by American women or something based on those comments... either way, so American women do not like like men all over us, coming on strong, and that makes us what in his eyes? Oh money hungry and prudish since we don't like slimy guys attacking us. Who knows what he said in Maxim! Just this article alone has DC where he plays not even fond of him based on his words.

And either way I don't really care which is why I am going to stop talking about this guy personally after this post..

But I think you have a point, Erin, that he doesn't hesitate to talk about America negatively (I also just read how he came down on American police and laws, how strict things are here, then said he is Rooshian (whatever that means) and that he doesn't like these things here, but of course he must not mind receiving that paycheck, baby) and the irony is if an American athlete was in Russia pulling the same things about their country and women in a negative light, that American would be considered the Devil in a much stronger way. Ovechkin mostly gets away with it here minus having some haters but overall the backlash is not so strong.

**'Tos** · 11-11-2009, 08:25 PM

Eh, if you read the Maxim interview, he says nothing close to the first quote (in fact, he said quite the opposite) so that guy is obviously a little more than biased. But, I'm not trying to defend Ovechkin's comments either way (especially the second one, yikes) other than to say that for the most part he speaks very highly of America, pretty much says that he likes it here a lot, but likes his own culture like anyone would, Otherwise, let the jokes continue.

A few NHL thoughts:

-The NHL GMs today decided to do something about the head shots. Finally. They've acknowledged, like we've talked about, that the changes to the game since the lockout, while improving the game, have also put the players at risk and they plan to address it. Hopefully they do something that actually works!

-Detroit beat Columbus 9-1 today!

I can't remember a score that high, and you have to feel bad for Ken Hitchcock to have his team blown out like that during his 1,000th game!

-Forbes put out its yearly NHL team valuations if anyone's interested: NHL Team Valuations - Forbes.com

I'm surprised to see Edmonton so low! And all of the original six teams are in the top seven, with only Philly as a non-original in the top seven. Interesting! History does matter. And you have to think how Toronto would do even better if they actually had a decent team.

CRFEUC · 11-11-2009, 08:28 PM

Good thoughts, Michelle. That leaves a really bad taste in my mouth that he said that BS about American women and the rape and money. What gives him the right? Shut up already.

He's just a moron, plain and simple.

I think there's no in between with him. You either love or hate him. My guess is not many women like him but even a a few guys I know cannot stand him either. Our Mike cannot stand him. I guess it depends. Either way, he's great for the game of hockey but his personality is a huge turn off. That's what I think.

**everwoodfan52** · 11-11-2009, 08:56 PM

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Originally Posted by Wilpen (View Post)

Missed this.

Those seem fair I guess. I hope England gets slaughtered. Lol.

Did you see all 100?

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That is a major loss.

Who is essentially picking up the slack for him?

I'm not really sure. The keep trying out different people in the striker position. We have Jose Altodore....but he's not Charlie.

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And I know.. it seems we can get up for matches that we have no business winning (Spain) and we play like punks during matches that we should handle easily.

That's exactly what I mean. You never know what team you're going to get.