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Possibly. Maybe Barnes knows JJ doesn't really want the position of unit chief but would only take it for the sake of her team. This could have Barnes believe that JJ would accept as unit chief for her team but not want to or attempt to go any higher than that.
I think one main reason JJ wouldn't want the unit chief role is because she saw how hard it was for Hotch to balance work and time with Jack. And JJ has two young boys, so I can't see her wanting to be unit chief because of this. Heck, the possibility of moving into Morgan's old office was too much for her. So it's definitely possible Barnes is under the assumption that JJ is happy where she is now and would not try to climb the ranks.
Now, with Prentiss, it could very well be a repeat of Strauss and Hotch. Hotch never had any intentions of climbing up in the ranks, but Strauss seemed to think he might. But when Strauss died Hotch temporarily filled in but wanted there to be a permanent replacement that wasn't him.
So maybe Barnes has some crazy idea that Prentiss wants to be higher in the ranks someday. Maybe Barnes is under the impression that maybe that's why Prentiss came back last year. Prentiss has been in a leadership role since 2012 (first with Interpol and now the BAU). So it's possible Barnes could see Prentiss as wanting to climb up to be higher in command.
Or it's possible Barnes has something against the BAU (a plot that's been done before). The first step to disarming the BAU could be getting rid of their boss. And then getting rid of Prentiss requires someone to fill in. So Barnes picked someone with little experience in regards to being unit chief. If so, this could be why Barnes picked JJ and not Rossi, because Rossi would probably see right through the scheme and crap and have a better understanding of the politics. Barnes could think JJ might not clue in as well as Rossi
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